Statistical answers to the two questions every board asks: what will we get, and where should the next dollar go?
Get StartedOnce a marketing budget crosses seven figures, the cost of guessing compounds. Last-click attribution can't see offline channels, can't survive privacy changes, and can't tell you what would have happened anyway. Yet most budgets are still allocated on exactly that evidence.
Forecasting & Media Mix Modelling is our premium advisory engagement for marketing and finance leaders who need allocation decisions they can defend, with statistical rigour, in language a CFO accepts.
MMM works on aggregated historical data (spend, outcomes, and external factors), so it needs no cookies and survives every privacy change. The model isolates each channel's true incremental contribution and produces:
Channel Contribution Analysis: how much revenue each channel is actually responsible for, from paid search and social to TV, out-of-home, and organic.
Response Curves and Diminishing Returns: where each channel saturates, and where the next dollar still works hard.
Baseline Versus Incremental Split: the revenue you'd earn without marketing, separated from the revenue your campaigns drive.
Seasonality and External Adjustment: so you stop paying your media plan compliments that belong to December.
Budget Scenarios: model the reallocation before you commit real dollars to it.
Machine-learning forecasting models built on your own data (revenue, demand, pipeline, or customer behaviour) with confidence intervals, not single-point promises. Use them to set targets finance will sign, plan inventory and headcount against expected demand, and pressure-test next year's plan against multiple spend scenarios before it's locked.
We audit spend and outcome history across channels and confirm the model is feasible before you commit to the full build.
Data preparation, feature engineering, fitting, and out-of-sample validation. Every assumption documented.
We sit with marketing and finance and run the reallocation questions live: shift 20% out of a saturated channel, halve brand spend, double a growth market.
Markets move and models drift. Ongoing advisory keeps the model current and the reallocation decisions coming.
MMM needs 12 to 24 months of spend and outcome history across multiple channels. It's built for organisations investing AUD 100k or more per month in paid media. If you're earlier than that, start with a Marketing Effectiveness Audit; its channel mix assessment is the lightweight version of this work, and it builds the data foundation a future model needs.
Forecasting engagement, one to three forecast targets with scenario planning: AUD 10,000 to 18,000 ex GST.
Media Mix Model build, single market, full channel set: AUD 18,000 to 35,000 ex GST.
Combined build, MMM plus forecasting with integrated scenario planning: AUD 30,000 to 50,000 ex GST.
Ongoing advisory, quarterly model refresh and reallocation reviews: AUD 4,000 to 7,500 per quarter.
Transparent Modelling: You see every assumption, variable, and output, and the reasoning behind them.
Commercially Fluent: Models built by people who have run media budgets, presented in language finance accepts.
Decision-Ready Outputs: Budget scenarios and channel recommendations, not a 90-slide appendix.
A Living Model: Refresh engagements keep the model honest as your mix evolves.
Let's discuss how forecasting & media mix modelling can drive measurable results for your business.